Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the country and caused chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. They writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
